The Grocery Bill Is Telling Credit Unions Something. Are We Listening?
- Anne Legg
- 5 days ago
- 5 min read
For years, credit unions have talked about improving members' financial well-being.
But what if one of the clearest signals of financial pressure isn't buried in a sophisticated financial model?
What if it's sitting in the grocery cart?
New research from the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility offers a striking picture of what is standing between Americans and the lives they are trying to build.
McKinsey surveyed more than 30,000 adults across the United States about their aspirations, financial circumstances, and the barriers preventing them from making progress.
The overwhelming answer?
Affordability.
Sixty percent of respondents identified the rising cost of living as one of their top three barriers to getting ahead. And nearly four in ten described themselves as financially vulnerable or struggling to meet basic needs. (McKinsey & Company)
But one finding should be especially interesting to credit unions.
The #1 affordability pressure isn't housing. It's food.
Among respondents who identified the rising cost of living as a major barrier:
88% cited groceries and food as a top cost concern.
Compare that with:
57% — housing
50% — transportation, including gas
48% — utilities and phone
37% — healthcare and prescriptions
That 88% deserves our attention.
McKinsey points out that consumers appear particularly sensitive to expenses they encounter frequently. Grocery purchases happen week after week, making food prices one of the most visible and persistent reminders of affordability pressure. (McKinsey & Company)
For credit unions, this raises a much bigger question:
If grocery affordability is one of the pressures members feel most acutely, can we see that pressure in our own data?
I believe we can.
From a national statistic to a member signal
A national study can tell us that Americans are struggling with grocery costs.
Your transaction data can help tell you whether your members are struggling with them.
Think about what already exists inside checking-account and ACH transaction data.
Over time, a credit union may be able to identify changes such as:
Grocery spending consuming a larger share of household income.
Members shifting where they shop—from traditional grocery stores toward discount retailers.
More frequent, smaller grocery transactions rather than larger planned purchases.
Declining discretionary spending occurring alongside stable or increasing essential spending.
Reduced savings transfers as essential household expenses consume more income.
Greater reliance on credit as the period between paychecks progresses.
No single transaction proves that a member is financially stressed.
But patterns can become signals.
And signals can become opportunities to help.
This is where CU Power comes in.
CU Power is built around a simple premise:
Credit unions shouldn't only say they improve members' financial lives. They should be able to see it, measure it, and prove it.
That starts by understanding the financial realities members are experiencing.
The CU Power framework examines seven dimensions of financial well-being, including housing stability, transportation, emergency savings, debt management, retirement readiness, credit health, and financial confidence.
But those measures don't exist in isolation.
A member's grocery bill can affect almost every one of them.
When food consumes more of a paycheck, there may be less available to build emergency savings.
Less available to reduce debt.
Less available for retirement contributions.
Less room to absorb an unexpected car repair.
And ultimately, less financial confidence.
That is why everyday spending behavior can be such a powerful piece of member intelligence.
Imagine knowing your members' Grocery Burden
Instead of simply asking:
How much are our members spending at grocery stores?
Ask:
What percentage of their income is going toward groceries and food—and how is that changing?
That creates a much more meaningful measure.
Call it a Grocery Burden Ratio:
Grocery & food spending ÷ estimated household income
Now track it over time.
Imagine discovering that a segment of members who historically spent 12% of identifiable income on groceries is now spending 16%.
The important insight isn't simply that grocery spending increased.
It's that less of the member's paycheck is available for everything else.
Then layer in another CU Power indicator.
What happens to emergency savings among those members?
Are balances declining?
Are transfers into savings disappearing?
Is revolving debt increasing?
Are members beginning to exhibit paycheck-to-paycheck behavior?
Suddenly, grocery spending isn't just transaction data.
It's an early affordability signal.
The opportunity isn't to predict. It's to recognize.
This distinction matters.
Member intelligence isn't about predicting what someone will buy next.
It's about recognizing where members are in their financial journey and showing up with the right support before they have to ask.
A member experiencing increasing grocery burden may not need a marketing campaign.
They may need breathing room.
Perhaps that means helping them restructure higher-cost debt.
Perhaps it means identifying members who could benefit from a small emergency savings program.
Perhaps it means providing financial coaching.
Perhaps it means ensuring the credit union's most financially vulnerable members aren't being targeted with products that add financial pressure.
And perhaps the first step is simply recognizing that something in their financial life has changed.
This is the opportunity for credit unions.
McKinsey's research tells us something important about Americans right now:
People still have aspirations.
They want greater financial security. They want to build better lives for themselves and their families. But affordability is increasingly standing between where they are today and where they want to go. (McKinsey & Company)
Credit unions don't have to solve inflation.
They don't have to control grocery prices.
But they can recognize how those pressures are affecting their members.
And unlike many institutions, credit unions already possess something incredibly valuable:
The financial signals members generate every day.
The question is whether we're using those signals simply to process transactions—or to understand people's financial lives.
The grocery bill may look like a transaction.
It's actually telling us a story.
And when credit unions learn how to listen to that story, data becomes intelligence.
Intelligence becomes action.
And action becomes measurable member impact.
That's CU Power.
Source: McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, “In pursuit of progress: Americans’ aspirations for economic mobility,” 2026. The research surveyed 30,119 U.S. adults in April 2026. (McKinsey & Company)
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